Bruce Blakeman has tightened the New York governor race, with a new Siena College poll showing Republican challenger Bruce Blakeman trailing Gov. Kathy Hochul by 10 points. The survey, released Wednesday, puts Hochul at 49 percent and Blakeman at 39 percent among likely voters, a result that leaves the Democrat ahead but short of a majority.
The numbers matter because they compare favorably for Blakeman with where Republicans stood at this point in the last cycle. In August 2022, Hochul led then-Rep. Lee Zeldin by 14 points among likely voters, 53 percent to 39 percent, before narrowly defeating him in the general election 53 percent to 47 percent. Siena pollster Steven Greenberg said Hochul’s current lead is not yet at the “magic 50 percent mark,” underscoring that the race has become more competitive than many expected.
The broader statewide picture still favors Democrats, but the margin is uneven. Attorney General Letitia James leads Republican Saritha Komatireddy by 18 points, 54 percent to 36 percent, and Comptroller Tom DiNapoli leads Republican Joseph Hernandez by 23 points, 55 percent to 32 percent. That makes Hochul’s smaller edge stand out inside a Democratic-leaning state political landscape that usually gives incumbents a cushion.
Gender and geography are shaping the contest. Hochul leads Blakeman by 19 points among women, 56 percent to 37 percent, while likely male voters are split. In New York City, she holds a 45-point advantage, 64 percent to 19 percent. Blakeman, by contrast, is ahead in the suburbs by 8 points, 49 percent to 41 percent, and the two are tied upstate, according to the poll.
Blakeman also appears to be drawing support from some groups Republicans often struggle to reach in New York. He has stronger backing among Catholics and the support of 42 percent of Jewish voters, a bloc that usually leans Democratic. Blakeman is Jewish, and that support could help him continue building a coalition outside the GOP’s traditional base.
