Pentagon boosts missile buys after stockpile strain

The strain has intensified as the Army has used much of its other precision-fire inventory in the conflict with Iran. Reuters reported this week that the service had used “virtually all” of its ATACMS and Precision Strike Missile stocks in just five months of fighting, while also drawing heavily on Patriot and THAAD interceptors. That kind of demand has sharpened worries about what a longer conflict could look like against China, which has built the world’s largest arsenal of conventional ballistic and cruise missiles.

Heritage’s analysis estimates annual production capacity at 620 PAC-3 MSE missiles and 96 THAAD interceptors, though Fein said much of that output has gone to foreign military sales. The fiscal 2027 plan would make a dramatic change, shifting THAAD procurement to the Army and seeking production of 857 THAAD interceptors, including 27 through discretionary funding and another 830 through mandatory Munitions Acceleration Council funding. The administration’s new agreements with defense companies, Fein said, are “the most significant effort to address munitions shortfall in, at a minimum, decades.”

But paper orders are not the same as missiles on a shelf. Advanced interceptors depend on specialized production lines and a wide supplier base for rocket motors, seekers, guidance systems, energetics and other components. Those facilities cannot expand overnight, which means the new procurement push is really a bid to build capacity over several years, not simply refill magazines quickly.

Fein’s report argues that a conflict with China would demand much deeper reserves than the United States has now. It estimates a minimum viable inventory of 7,082 PAC-3 MSE interceptors and 1,394 THAAD interceptors for such a fight, while noting that current stockpile levels remain classified. At current production rates, Heritage estimates it could take roughly nine to more than 80 years to build the inventories it believes are needed, depending on the system. The warning is simple: America’s ability to deter or survive a major Pacific war will depend in part on whether it can rebuild its interceptor magazines fast enough.