Hamas Disarmament Plan Faces Deep Obstacles

The political backdrop is just as important as the battlefield. Israel is headed toward a general election at the end of October, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is trailing in the polls. He is under pressure to avoid any appearance of weakness on Hamas, while also managing a long-running corruption trial that has slowed while he remains in office. Across the Atlantic, President Donald Trump also faces pressure, with US midterm elections in November and a need for a foreign policy success he can claim as his own.

Netanyahu is known for delaying hard decisions when cornered, and he is likely to try to keep both domestic critics and Washington at bay until election day. Hamas, meanwhile, has been weakened by the war. Most of its senior figures and thousands of fighters have been killed, and the Israel Defense Forces continue to target senior members when they can. Some Palestinians blame Hamas for the consequences of the 7 October attack, while the group also faces pressure from powerful families and militias backed by Israel.

Even so, Hamas has tried to rebuild support at the grassroots level. According to BBC Gaza correspondent Rushdi Abu Alouf, the group has turned part of its attention toward social and political outreach, including Quran memorization programs and charitable activity for children and young people, while making use of the humanitarian crisis and families’ dependence on aid. Khalil al Hayya, Hamas’ newly confirmed political leader, played a key role in dropping objections to the framework after diplomatic work by Egypt and Turkey.

That work is only a beginning. A step-by-step approach, starting small and building trust, appears to be the only path with any chance of success. But the process is fragile, and the occupied West Bank is also on edge, with ACLED warning that 2026 is on track to be its most violent year in a decade. Jewish settlers, backed by Israeli forces and encouraged by extremists in Netanyahu’s government, have attacked Palestinians and driven some from their land, while Palestinians organize their own resistance. Without a political horizon for Palestinians and a route to self-determination, the Gaza effort may collapse before it begins. For Americans, the lesson is simple: if diplomacy is not sustained, the war can keep feeding the same cycle of violence, instability and wider regional risk.