Michigan’s Jewish vote could become the deciding factor in the state’s Senate race, as some Jewish voters say they are ready to break with their longtime Democratic habits and back Republican Mike Rogers over Democrat Abdul El-Sayed. In a contest already framed by razor-thin margins, even a small shift in one closely watched bloc could matter.
Analysts point to Michigan’s last U.S. Senate race, which was decided by just 19,006 votes. The state’s Jewish adult population is estimated at between about 105,000 and 130,000, with many concentrated in the Detroit suburbs. Republican pollster Matthew Knee said the party has already seen gains in Jewish precincts and argued that both Rogers and El-Sayed could deepen that trend. He noted that Rogers lost his 2024 Senate bid by 19,006 votes, making the Jewish electorate large enough to alter the outcome in a close race. Sam Markstein of the Republican Jewish Coalition said primary results in Oak Park, Bloomfield Township, West Bloomfield and Southfield showed a large advantage for Haley Stevens over El-Sayed, a sign, he said, that many Jewish voters do not support the Democratic nominee.
Interviews with Jewish voters in Michigan showed why the issue has become so charged. Several said El-Sayed’s views on Israel and Zionism have pushed them to weigh party loyalty against concerns about the safety of their families and community. Steve Cohen, a lifelong Michigan resident and self-described ticket splitter, said attacks on synagogues and school buildings have made the climate feel threatening. Benji, a lifelong liberal whose last name was withheld for security reasons, said he now feels caught between progressive politics and the safety of his children. Stacy, from a fifth-generation Democratic Jewish family, said her discomfort grew at the state party convention in April, where she felt hostility toward open supporters of Israel and said she saw the warning signs in the treatment of Stevens.
Those concerns are playing out against a broader backdrop of political realignment. For generations, many Jewish families in Michigan have been strongly tied to the Democratic Party, and Jewish voters have long supplied Democrats with turnout and donations. Jesse Arm of the Manhattan Institute said the reaction to El-Sayed among Jewish Democrats appears unusually strong, with some withholding support while others are moving all the way to Rogers. He also noted that Jewish organizers and fundraisers have described significant opposition to the Democratic nominee. For Republicans, that creates an opening in a state where a relatively small number of votes can swing a statewide race.
